Jindal Poly - Update

CMP - Rs 230

The stock price is definitely moving up. It increased around 8% on Friday after the company announced some minor modification to the buy back approved earlier. I couldn't find anything new in this news although Mr. Market got excited.

Now what? should I be buying more or just wait till it crosses Rs. 350 and sell.  I am finding it difficult to convince myself to buy more although that is the right things to do. The price is still very low compared to its intrinsic worth. But I guess I am subconsciously anchored to Rs 200, my earlier buy price.

Key takeaways
1. Graham was definitely right about Mr. Market. He just wants some action. Any efficient market theory supporters?
2. Anchoring is easy to understand but very difficult to practice.

Jindal Poly - Update

CMP - Rs. 215.6

Stock price is moving up with high volumes. See I was so right about it!!. This is what I wants to believe although actual price movement can be in any direction irrespective of the analysis. We can sometime be right even with faulty thinking. How do I know if my analysis is correct?

Jindal Poly Films - History Repeats!!

Lot of things happened to this stock/company in last one year

• Company announced a 1:1 bonus and the stock price went to Rs 530+ after the record date (around  3-4 times the price when I had analyzed)
• Company is investing in thermal power company called Jindal Powetech. Around 600MW is expected to go live in Mar 2012
• Plastic prices zoomed and came back to normal recently

Yesterday I checked the stock to see whats happening

• The net profit dropped considerably in the last Quarter due to decrease in the plastic prices
• The current market price is around Rs 205 from the peak of 500+ some time back
• Company has again announced a buy back from market up to Rs 350 with a budget of 140 crore

So the price is nearly back to the price one year back adjusting for the bonus. The stock is looking more attractive now than one year back considering that nothing much has changed to the company. Actually the company is increasing the prices of its product from last few months and expect to retain the volumes. This should reflect in this and future quarter results.

I feel this is a great opportunity and stock is a good bet for the long term at these prices.